1 · Calculations

Sun Tzu said: War is a great matter of the state. It is the ground of life and death, the way to survival or ruin; it cannot but be examined. Therefore assess it in terms of five factors, compare the two sides by calculation, and so seek out the true situation. The first is the Way, the second Heaven, the third Earth, the fourth the commander, the fifth method.

The Way is what makes the people of one mind with their ruler, so that they will die with him and live with him and not fear danger. Heaven is darkness and light, cold and heat, the order of the seasons. Earth is high and low, far and near, difficult and easy, wide and narrow, ground of death and ground of life. The commander is wisdom, trustworthiness, humaneness, courage and strictness. Method is organisation, the chain of command, and the management of supplies. Of these five, there is no commander who has not heard; he who knows them wins, he who does not know them does not win. Therefore compare the two sides by seven calculations and so seek out the true situation. Which ruler has the Way? Which commander has ability? Which side has the advantages of Heaven and Earth? On which side are regulations and orders carried out? Which army is stronger? Whose officers and men are better trained? On which side are rewards and punishments clearer? By these I know who will win and who will lose.

If a commander heeds my calculations, employ him and he will surely win: keep him. If a commander does not heed my calculations, employ him and he will surely lose: dismiss him. Once the advantages of the calculations have been heeded, create momentum to support them from without. Momentum means shaping one's course according to advantage. War is the way of deception. Therefore, when able, appear unable; when active, appear inactive; when near, appear far; when far, appear near. Offer the enemy bait to lure him; feign disorder and strike him. If he is solid, prepare for him; if he is strong, avoid him. If he is angry, provoke him; if he is humble, make him arrogant. If he is rested, wear him out; if his forces are united, divide them. Attack where he is unprepared; appear where he does not expect you. These are the ways by which strategists win; they cannot be laid down in advance.

Now, he who wins the calculations in the temple before the battle has many factors in his favour;¹ he who loses the calculations in the temple before the battle has few. Many factors bring victory, few bring defeat; how much more no factors at all! By looking at it in this way, I can see who will win and who will lose.

Before a campaign, the ruler and his commanders weighed their chances in the ancestral temple. ↩